Macro

A collection of 276 posts

Macro Featured

The Bond Market Just Demoted France

French 10-year yields touched 5% for the first time since 2002, the euro is at a 17-month low, and France now borrows at higher rates than Italy. How the eurozone's second economy lost the benefit of the doubt — and why it matters for your money.

Markets Featured

Eight Justices Will Decide Whether a Jury Can Price Climate Change

The Supreme Court opened its 2026-27 term with Big Oil in the dock: Suncor v. Boulder County could extinguish dozens of climate lawsuits or send them toward juries -- and Justice Alito's recusal makes the math harder for the industry.

Markets Featured

Candidates Are Betting on Their Own Elections. Congress Just Noticed.

A battleground-district candidate was fined for trading contracts on her own race. Her opponent just filed the first federal bill to ban it — as America heads into its first prediction-market election.

Members only

Markets Featured

Vietnam Is Running Its Economy Like China in 2007

Vietnam just posted 9.95% growth and joined FTSE's emerging-market index in the same month — yet the dong is at record lows, inflation is above target, and the Vietnam ETF sold off. The math behind Hanoi's double-digit ambition looks uncomfortably like Beijing's in 2007.

Macro Featured

The Most Expensive Open Enrollment in 20 Years Starts November 1

Employer health costs are set for their biggest jump since 2003, ACA insurers want a median 15% more, and the subsidies that cushioned the marketplace are gone. America's next inflation shock is in the benefits packet.

Members only

Markets Featured

Diesel at $6.50 Just Ended the Freight Recession

U.S. diesel set an all-time record in September. Truckers are rejecting one in seven contracted loads, small carriers are folding, and rate hikes are landing a month early. The three-year freight recession is ending — from the supply side.

Macro Featured

America Stopped Hiring. The Fed Is Still Hiking.

29,000 jobs in September. July revised to a net loss. The Fed hiked into a frozen labor market and claimed job gains were keeping pace. What the freeze means for rates, wages, and your money.

Members only

Markets Featured

Superbugs Kill a Million People a Year. Curing Them Is a Failing Business.

The superbug drug pipeline has shrunk 35% in five years while resistant infections kill more than a million people annually. The science works; the business model doesn't - and one policy catalyst could reprice the entire sector.

Infrastructure Featured

Congress Finally Has a Deal to Unclog the Grid. Data Centers Get the Bill.

Four senators from opposite ends of the spectrum just introduced the permitting overhaul Washington has chased for a decade — durable permits, federal transmission authority, and a rule making data centers pay for their own grid upgrades.

Members only

Finance Featured

The Slow-Motion Run on Private Credit

Blackstone's flagship retail credit fund has gated withdrawals two quarters running, Blue Owl is liquidating a fund outright, and the public market is pricing identical loans anywhere from par to 72 cents. The dispersion is the trade.

Members only

Markets Featured

Inflation Is Rising. There's a War On. Gold Is Down 21%.

CPI at 3.7% and climbing, oil above $100, a shooting war in the Gulf — and gold sits a fifth below its January peak. The playbook didn't fail. The highest real yield since 2008 overrode it.

Markets Featured

America's Largest-Ever Steel Plant Comes From a Company That Went Bankrupt Building Its Last One

Essar-backed Mesabi Metallics just won a White House stage for an $18 billion mine-to-mill steel plan. The last time this group made a promise on this Minnesota ore body, it ended in bankruptcy court.

Paid-members only

Finance Featured

Why America Is Buying Yen

The US Treasury intervened to strengthen the yen for the first time since 1998, the BOJ just hiked to a 31-year high, and Japan's entire bond curve trades at mid-1990s levels. The world's largest creditor is repricing — here's what it means for Treasuries, the carry trade, and your positioning.

Macro Featured

The Hottest Job in the AI Economy Doesn't Require a Degree

Meta got 35,000 applications in a week for 1,000 spots at a trades academy. The AI buildout's real bottleneck isn't chips — it's electricians, and America is short 349,000 construction workers this year alone.

Macro Featured

Americans Feel Worse Than They Did in 2008. They Haven't Stopped Spending.

Consumer sentiment just printed the second-lowest reading in its 74-year history while retail sales grow 6% a year and the Fed hikes into the gloom. One of these signals is wrong — and which one breaks decides Q4.

Members only

Markets Featured

Turkey Quarantined an $18 Billion Fund Collapse. The Scandal Escaped Anyway.

Eleven days took Turkey's fund blowup from a missed payment to the ruling party's leadership: 131 funds in liquidation, five financiers arrested, and a deputy chair gone. Whether the $18.3 billion quarantine holds is now the only question that matters for the Turkey trade.

Paid-members only

Energy Featured

The House Voted 417-3 to Send Big Tech the Power Bill. One Senator Said No.

The most lopsided vote of the year met a one-man roadblock — and the fight over who pays for AI's electricity is now the sharpest repricing risk in the power trade.

Members only

Markets Featured

The Coffee Shortage Is Over. The $9 Pound Isn't.

Arabica futures are down a third from their peak as Brazil delivers a record crop and the first global surplus in five years — yet grocery coffee sits 4% off its all-time high. The spread belongs to the roasters.

Healthcare Featured

America Has Plenty of Beds. It's Running Out of Doctors.

The U.S. faces a projected shortfall of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036 — a bottleneck built into the training pipeline in 1997 and never fully reopened. Here's how the doctor shortage reshapes where health-care capital flows.

Members only

Finance Featured

America's Banks Passed a Stress Test for the Wrong Stress

All 32 big banks passed a Fed scenario where the 10-year Treasury falls to 2.3%. It closed Friday at 5.18% — and Washington is weeks from finalizing rules that make the test easier to predict. The $327 billion problem hides in plain sight.

Markets Featured

Americans Will Spend $158 Billion on Their Pets This Year. Most Just Skipped the Vet.

Record pet spending and a nationwide affordability squeeze are both real at once. The result is a K-shaped pet economy — and the stocks have already picked a side.

Geopolitics Featured

Russia Fired the Master Spy and Hired the Gig Worker

Moscow runs two recruitment engines, money for the willing and hostages for the unwilling, and Germany is the front line: DHL parcel fires, the Rheinmetall assassination plot, and drones mapping critical infrastructure. The MO, the tradecraft, and what it reprices.

Macro Featured

760,000 People Just Lost Their Health Insurance. The Government Says They Never Asked for It.

CMS canceled 315,000 marketplace enrollments covering 760,000 people and froze new broker registrations weeks before open enrollment. The fraud is real. So is the coverage crisis it conveniently obscures.

Finance Featured

Set Up to Fail: The $694 Million Reckoning for America's Subprime Car Loans

More than 40 attorneys general just extracted $694 million from Credit Acceptance, alleging America's best-known subprime auto lender made car loans its own models predicted would fail. The stock barely flinched. Here's what the settlement actually changes.

Members only

Markets Featured

The World's Fastest-Growing Economy Can't Keep Foreign Money

India grew 7.8% last quarter — and foreign investors just sold a record $26 billion of its stocks. Inside the widening gap between the Indian economy and the Indian market, and the five signposts that would mark the turn.