Intuitive Machines (LUNR): The $1.8 Billion Backlog at a $17 Stock
LUNR just reported Q2 revenue four times higher than a year ago, expanded its backlog to a record $1.8 billion, and embedded itself inside the Golden Dome missile defense architecture -- all while trading below 3x forward revenue. Here's what the scenario math looks like.
LUNR's morning was eventful. Before U.S. markets opened Thursday, Intuitive Machines reported second-quarter revenue of $206 million -- four times what the company generated in Q2 2025, when it posted just $50 million. The quarter also came with a record backlog of $1.8 billion, $920 million in Q2 bookings, and a string of contract wins across lunar, commercial, and missile defense programs that most retail-facing coverage has not connected into a single picture.
The stock closed Wednesday at $16.95, down more than 63% from its 52-week high of $46.75. Options traders had priced in a 13.5% move in either direction after the print. The actual earnings came in slightly below the Wall Street revenue estimate of $216 million to $219 million -- but the backlog expansion was substantially ahead of any reasonable prior expectation.
What Intuitive Machines Actually Is Now
The company most investors know as a lunar lander startup -- the one that put the first U.S. spacecraft on the Moon's surface in decades with its IM-1 mission -- has quietly become something different. The Lanteris Space Systems acquisition in late 2025 brought in the IM-300 satellite bus and a mature spacecraft production line. The Goonhilly Earth Station and COMSAT acquisition, completed August 3, added a global deep-space communications network and a defense satellite services business. The result is a company that now spans spacecraft design and production, lunar missions, missile-defense satellite work, and ground station operations under one roof.
That pivot is visible in the backlog. At year-end 2025, Intuitive Machines held roughly $300 million in backlog. At Q1 end, it was $1.1 billion. At Q2 end, $1.8 billion. That is a $1.5 billion increase in six months.
The Programs Behind the Number
Four major wins shaped the quarter:
The Space Force Andromeda IDIQ. Intuitive Machines is now on the approved vendor list for a $6.2 billion shared-ceiling contract covering space domain awareness -- a constellation designed to observe and track activity in geosynchronous orbit. The ceiling is pooled across multiple vendors, not a direct allocation, but the vehicle puts the company in the room for awards over the next several years.
The L3Harris AMDT3 subcontract. The Space Development Agency awarded L3Harris a $955 million contract in July 2026 for 18 hypersonic and ballistic tracking satellites as part of the Golden Dome missile defense initiative. L3Harris selected Intuitive Machines to design, build, and deliver the 18 IM-300 spacecraft platforms. The subcontract value has not been officially disclosed; one analyst estimate places it at approximately $200 million.
A $600 million commercial GEO satellite contract. Disclosed alongside the Q2 earnings release, this contract covers three commercial geostationary satellites. The counterparty has not yet been named publicly. If delivered on schedule, it would represent Intuitive Machines' largest single commercial contract since the company went public.
A sixth NASA CLPS lunar lander mission. Awarded under NASA's Moonbase program, this extends the company's lunar revenue runway. Intuitive Machines also won two prime lunar reconnaissance contracts during the quarter -- the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera and ShadowCam programs -- moving it up the NASA supply chain from contractor to prime on reconnaissance infrastructure.
The Math the Backlog Creates
The company is guiding to $900 million to $1 billion in FY2026 revenue. It posted $392.7 million in the first half -- meaning the second half must deliver between $507 million and $607 million to hit that range. Management says 60% to 65% of its $1.8 billion backlog converts in 2026. That is $1.08 billion to $1.17 billion in backlog-supported revenue for the full year -- ahead of the guidance ceiling, which implies the guidance itself is conservative if conversion holds.
The company started FY2026 with $582.6 million in cash. It ended Q2 with $367 million. That is $215.6 million consumed in six months. Cash burn is a number every LUNR investor should have memorized before the market opens.
Whether the current $16.95 price reflects the bear case, the base case, or something else depends on what H2 execution actually looks like. That is the question this briefing answers.
The rest of this briefing is for paid members: the backlog-to-revenue conversion math in detail, the cash burn clock and what rate it needs to slow to, a breakdown of dilution risk from SPAC warrants and acquisition shares, and three scenario price zones (bear/base/bull) with the implied price ranges for each.
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