Top 10 Stocks to Watch — Tuesday, September 1
Markets reopen September with a hawkish Fed, Brent crude near $91 on renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, and four major earnings catalysts after the close tonight. Ten names worth watching — three free, seven behind the paywall.
Markets are reopening September on shaky ground. S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% and Nasdaq futures +0.55% this morning — a modest rebound after Monday's broad selloff that knocked the Dow -0.7%, the S&P -0.3%, and the Nasdaq -0.1% as geopolitical risk repriced across asset classes.
Three macro forces are setting the table for today's trading. First, the U.S.-Iran conflict reignited over the weekend, with fresh strikes reported Sunday and Brent crude surging 3.5% to $91.20/barrel — energy names are catching a bid. Second, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole last Thursday pushed the implied probability of a September rate hike to 57.5%, with the 10-year Treasury yield now sitting at 4.75%. Third, an unusually heavy after-hours earnings calendar tonight — Palo Alto Networks, MongoDB, Dell Technologies, and Credo Technology all print after the close — creates both risk and opportunity for traders willing to hold into the session.
The August Nonfarm Payrolls report drops Friday. The median estimate is 55,000 jobs added in August — a number that, if it prints below expectations, could materially shift rate hike bets. Every position today carries that Friday risk. The watchlist below reflects the catalysts that are real and verifiable now.
#1 — MDT | Medtronic
Prior close: $91.22 | +4%+ implied move on earnings
Medtronic delivered a clean beat this morning before the open, reporting Q1 fiscal 2027 results that cleared the bar on every key metric. Revenue came in at $9.756 billion — up 13.7% year-over-year and well above the $9.47 billion consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.45 beat the $1.39 estimate by 4.3%. The company also raised full-year guidance, which is the signal that tends to move medical device stocks the most: it tells the market management has visibility, not just a good quarter.
The beat was broad-based across segments, and the extra fiscal week (worth an estimated $570 million in revenue) was known and priced in by analysts — meaning the organic upside was real, not a calendar trick.
Watch for: A sustained move above the $95 level on volume. If the market gives MDT a full 4% implied move, shares would approach $94-$95. Healthcare as a sector has lagged the broader tape in a high-rate environment, and a guidance raise from a $120B+ company is the kind of anchor that can attract rotation. MDT also carries a dividend yield above 3%, which looks increasingly competitive at 4.75% on the 10-year only if the rate situation stabilizes.
#2 — PANW | Palo Alto Networks
Prior close: ~$373.54 | Earnings after close tonight
Palo Alto Networks reports its fiscal Q4 2026 results after the bell — one of the most watched earnings prints in cybersecurity. The consensus is looking for non-GAAP EPS of $0.98 and revenue of $3.35 billion. The last quarter delivered revenue of $3.0 billion, up 31% year-over-year, with next-generation security annual recurring revenue (NGS ARR) reaching $8.1 billion (+60% YoY).
Benchmark raised its price target to $400 from $340 this week, keeping a Buy rating, citing confidence that PANW will again beat on NGS ARR, operating margin, and free cash flow. The "platformization" thesis — where PANW replaces a patchwork of point security tools with a single platform — is generating real consolidation wins, and the AI-native security positioning (Cortex, Prisma AIRS) is increasingly a differentiator in enterprise procurement conversations.
The risk is valuation: PANW trades near 173x trailing earnings, and the stock has limited tolerance for any miss or cautious guidance.
Watch for: A decisive move in after-hours. If revenue and NGS ARR both beat, expect a gap toward the $390-$400 range. A miss on either metric — or soft Q1 guidance — could reverse 5-8% quickly. This is a pre-earnings positioning trade for the informed; manage size accordingly going into the close.
#3 — OXY | Occidental Petroleum
Prior close: ~$59.50-$61 range | Brent crude: $91.20
Oil is back at $91 Brent and the geopolitical picture just got more complex. Sunday's renewed U.S.-Iran military exchange — the latest escalation in a conflict that began in late February — has energy back in the spotlight. Occidental is one of the cleaner pure-play upstream expressions of oil price leverage among large-cap U.S. producers.
The Warren Buffett / Berkshire Hathaway accumulation story remains a structural floor — Berkshire has been methodically adding to its OXY position at various price points, signaling long-term conviction in the energy transition narrative (Occidental's carbon capture operations are one reason Berkshire is comfortable with the name at elevated multiples for an E&P).
The Strait of Hormuz risk premium is non-trivial here. Roughly 20% of global oil trade transits the strait. Full disruption is a tail event, but the option value of holding energy exposure when that risk is live is higher than it looks in a portfolio context.
Watch for: OXY holding above $60 on the open and tracking Brent. If crude makes another leg toward $95, OXY should be a high-beta beneficiary. Investors comfortable with energy volatility can watch for a pullback toward $59 as an entry; those already in should watch $62-$63 as near-term resistance.
The rest of this briefing is for paid members: the remaining 7 names on today's watchlist — including the AI data center play with a specific catalyst this morning, the two pre-earnings AI software setups, the oilfield services name with an ex-dividend date tomorrow, and the small-cap earnings wildcard that could move 15%+ tonight.
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