U.S. Markets: Tech Stumbles, Retail Resilience, and a Fed Crossroad

Key timing (save this):
Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote: Friday, Aug 22, 2025, 10:00 a.m. ET (8:00 a.m. MDT / 16:00 CEST Berlin). The symposium itself runs Aug 21–23, 2025. (Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)

The U.S. stock market is walking a tightrope this week. On one side: AI exuberance finally cracking, with Nvidia, Palantir, and other tech darlings stumbling. On the other: resilient retailers like TJX and Lowe’s proving fundamentals still matter—even under tariff pressure. Hovering over it all: Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, a potential market-setter as traders watch for rate-cut clues. (AP News)

Market This Week: Tech Shaken, Retail Shines

• Indexes retreat: After recent record highs, U.S. stocks have eased; the Nasdaq is off ~1.3–1.6% and the S&P 500 ~0.6–0.9% mid-week, driven by a tech pullback. (AP News)
• AI names under pressure: Nvidia slipped again after a prior drop, and Palantir extended losses; part of the wobble: fresh research showing most firms haven’t yet realized measurable returns from gen-AI spend, stoking valuation angst. (AP News)
• Retail divergence: TJX beat and raised guidance (shares popped), Lowe’s beat and unveiled an $8.8B deal for Foundation Building Materials (raised sales outlook), while Target sank after naming a new CEO effective Feb 1, 2026. (Reuters)
• Tariffs move tape: Estée Lauder warned tariffs will shave ~$100M off profits, another reminder that trade policy is bleeding into earnings. (Reuters)

Strategists’ Targets: Between Restraint and Euphoria

• Tom Lee (Fundstrat): S&P 500 base case ~6,600, bull case up to ~7,000 by year-end if the Fed turns dovish and manufacturing steadies. (Investopedia)
• Street outlook: Major houses have floated year-end targets in the 6,300–7,000 zip code depending on growth/earnings and the path of policy. (Representative examples: Goldman’s raised forecasts and other houses clustering in the 6,000s.) (Investopedia)
• Valuation caution: BofA flags dot-com-like froth in some metrics; the bar for AI to deliver is high. (Investopedia)
• Event risk: Evercore ISI warns a balanced Powell could catalyze a 7–15% pullback into October if markets don’t get the aggressive cuts they want. (Investopedia)

The Fed Factor (with precision)

• When: Friday, Aug 22, 2025 — 10:00 a.m. ET (8:00 a.m. MDT / 16:00 CEST Berlin). Bookmark it. (Investing.com, Yahoo Finance)
• Why it matters: Markets are leaning toward a September cut, so Powell’s tone is pivotal. Historically, stocks often post modest average gains around Jackson Hole, but 2022 was the stark exception after a hawkish message. Translation: volatility risk cuts both ways. (Reuters)

Tariffs: The Unpriced Risk Creeping Into Guidance

• Estée Lauder: Forecast profit hit of about $100M from tariffs; shares fell on guidance. (Reuters)
• Home improvement lens: Companies are signaling select price increases on tariff-sensitive goods while trying to protect volumes; keep watching how retailers pass through costs. (Reuters)

AlphaBriefing’s Five U.S. Stocks to Hold ≥ 1 Year

1. Microsoft (MSFT) — AI + cloud linchpin with margin strength; a core compounder even if sentiment chops around Jackson Hole.
2. Nvidia (NVDA) — Near-term volatile, long-term moat in AI compute, networking, and ecosystem lock-in remains intact.
3. Broadcom (AVGO) — Infrastructure backbone (accelerators, networking, software) powering AI adoption across data centers.
4. TJX Companies (TJX) — Off-price engine; raised FY guide and continues to capture trade-down and off-price supply tailwinds. (Reuters)
5. Home Depot (HD) — Durable cash generator and consumer barometer; steady guidance now, optionality if rates drift lower into 2026. (Reuters)

(Deliberately no current prices. Think in 12-month bands; add on weakness around policy headlines.)

The Playbook

• Into Friday: Expect headline-driven swings around 10:00 a.m. ET / 16:00 CEST. If Powell sounds balanced, Evercore’s correction risk rises; sharp dips in quality names are shopping lists, not panic buttons. (Investopedia)
• Positioning:
  • Growth engine: MSFT, NVDA, AVGO to ride the structural AI spend even as multiples compress toward earnings.
  • Resilience ballast: TJX, HD to buffer tariff/policy noise while capturing consumer mix shifts.
• What would change our mind? A Powell tone that hints at fewer or later cuts alongside deteriorating earnings revisions across tech and retail.

AlphaBriefing Signal

This week’s pullback is testing leaders, not ending trends. With Powell Friday at 16:00 CEST and tariffs seeping into guidance, the “buy-the-dip” muscle may get its first real workout in weeks. Keep dry powder for quality. (Investing.com)

🛡️ Disclaimer:
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only. The views expressed are based on publicly available information believed to be reliable at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty is made regarding accuracy or completeness. Nothing contained herein should be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation to engage in any investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Analyst price targets are opinions and not guarantees of future performance. You should conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.