AlphaBriefing Premium | November 18, 2025

Thanksgiving week has shown remarkably consistent tendencies for over a decade: lighter volume, exaggerated moves, retail hype, surging online spending, and a very specific rhythm that plays out across retail, e-commerce, payments, airlines, and logistics.

These aren’t rigid rules — but they’re patterns traders watch because they appear again and again.

Below is the AlphaBriefing breakdown of the Thanksgiving → Cyber Monday flow, and the trade setups that historically align with it.

1️⃣ The Thanksgiving Week Market Rhythm

Across many years of market behavior, Thanksgiving week often falls into a familiar three-part pattern. It’s not guaranteed, but the tendencies repeat often enough to shape trading decisions.

🔹 Phase 1 — The Early-Week Drift (Mon–Tue)

Heading into Thanksgiving, trading volume typically declines and price action becomes quieter.
This tends to produce:

• Sideways or mildly positive market drift
• Early positioning in retail and e-commerce
• Fewer big catalysts

It’s a low-conviction, setup-friendly start to the week.

🔹 Phase 2 — The Black Friday Sentiment Move (Fri – Half Day)

Black Friday is a half trading day with some of the lowest volume of the entire year — and low volume + wall-to-wall media coverage equals sentiment-driven moves.

The drivers:

• Morning TV footage of crowded stores
• Headlines on record deals and foot traffic
• Early online-sales metrics
• Algorithms reacting to retail keyword surges

Stocks that often react positively to the Black Friday mood:

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