🌍 The 96-Hour Window: If the U.S. and Israel Hit Iran, What Breaks First — and What Trades First
If the U.S. and Israel strike Iran, markets won’t wait for headlines. Oil, defense, cyber, and shipping could move within hours. We break down the 96-hour war scenario, regime-change odds, and the stocks positioned to react first.
Executive TL;DR
- The market is already pricing a geopolitical risk premium: Brent jumped above $70 on Jan 29, 2026 on strike fears. (Reuters)
- A joint strike (or US-enabled Israeli strike) most likely looks like: standoff air/missile strikes + cyber/EW aimed at nuclear infrastructure, air defenses, IRGC nodes, and missile production—not ground invasion.
- Regime change is possible but not the base case. The more realistic pathway is “stress fracture”: internal unrest + elite fragmentation + sanctions/finance shock. External strikes can accelerate that—or unify the regime temporarily.
- The first tradable ripple chain is typically: Oil → Shipping/Insurance → Defense → Cyber → Gold/Vol → Broad risk-off.
What’s changed this week (the “why now”)
Three signals matter more than rumors: