Sanctions on Russian oil, proposed U.S.–China software export curbs, and weak prints from Tesla and IBM are shaking risk appetite. Inflation risk is back on the table, and volatility is the name of the game.

Markets today (Thursday, October 23, 2025) are absorbing three simultaneous shocks — each disruptive on its own, together creating a volatile mix for equities, energy, and FX.

Energy Shock: Sanctions Return to Center Stage

Washington announced new sanctions on Russia’s largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, while the European Union approved its 19th sanctions package including a phased LNG ban. Oil jumped roughly 4–5% in response, putting inflation risk back on the radar. Higher energy costs quickly nudge breakevens and complicate central-bank rate-cut hopes.

Energy shocks price in fast; the policy shock to rate-cut expectations comes next.

Trade War 2.0: From Chips to Software

The Trump administration is considering broad new export controls on China that extend beyond semiconductors to software-powered tools and systems. That could touch industrial robotics, avionics, and enterprise IT. Asian equities slipped on the headlines, with the Nikkei down around 1.5% and broader Asia ex-Japan lower. If implemented, these controls would be a structural escalation, spreading compliance friction across supply chains.

Weaponizing the software layer is a step-change beyond chip bans — one that touches entire product trees.

Earnings Fail to Provide Relief

Earnings season didn’t cushion the tape:

• Tesla posted record sales and revenue but missed profit expectations; shares slipped in early trade.
• IBM delivered headline beats, but slowing cloud/software growth drove a ~5–7% drop.

The takeaway: when policy risk is rising, markets have little tolerance for even modest growth disappointments.

Tesla and IBM showed how thin the ice is when macro risk rises.

The Market Read-Through

Investors are recalibrating around an uncomfortable setup: higher energy costs, fresh supply-chain uncertainty, and shakier earnings momentum. The easy buy-the-dip playbook looks less reliable. Expect higher volatility, more selective exposure, and renewed interest in hedges.

🎧 Listen

Deeper dive on The Briefing Room: Subscribe for latest insights.
👉 Listen on Spotify

PREMIUM — Advanced Analysis & Stock Playbook (Subscribers)

Subscribers: keep reading for positioning, screens, and tickers.