$FIGR Beats by $34 Million After Closing Below Its IPO Price: 135% Volume Growth, a Take Rate Guided Down to 3.1%, and the Zones From $19.54 to $37

Figure Technology Solutions (NASDAQ: FIGR) reported third-quarter results Thursday morning and beat the consensus revenue estimate by roughly $34 million, printing $287 million of net revenue, up 84% year over year, against expectations of about $253 million. Loan marketplace volume grew 135%. Adjusted EBITDA grew 91% to $164 million at a 58% margin. By most software-adjacent standards, that is an elite quarter.

The stock it landed on closed Wednesday at $24.19. That is below the $25 IPO price from September 2025, 69% below the 52-week high of $78, and less than five dollars above the 52-week low of $19.54 the shares set earlier this month. A company that just grew revenue 84% with 58% adjusted EBITDA margins is trading at roughly $5.4 billion on its basic share count, call it $6 billion fully diluted, which works out to something in the neighborhood of 4.7 times annualized revenue and around 8 times annualized adjusted EBITDA.

That combination, hypergrowth economics priced like a cyclical lender, is not an accident. It is the market's verdict on a specific question, and Thursday's print sharpened rather than settled it: when Figure's volume doubles but its take rate keeps falling, what exactly is compounding?

Why It's Trending: A Big Beat Into Maximum Pessimism

Figure is trending because the print hit while sentiment was at its lowest point since the company went public. The shares touched a 52-week low of $19.54 in early November. On November 9, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut its price target from $45 to $37 while keeping an outperform rating, according to MarketBeat, and Zacks downgraded the stock two days later. Insiders have sold roughly $10 million of stock over the past three months, per GuruFocus, which bears have read as a tell.

Hanging over all of it is the short report. In April, Morpheus Research published a piece titled "Smoke and Mirrors From a Fast-and-Loose Lender Masquerading as a Blockchain Darling," arguing that Figure is a risky home-equity lender dressed up as a blockchain innovator, that loans are not actually originated on-chain in any economically meaningful sense, and that the headline blockchain initiatives are propped up by Figure itself. The company disputed the characterization. The stock closed at $35.73 the day the report dropped; it has lost roughly a third of its value since.

So Thursday's report was the first full quarter where the bulls needed hard numbers to answer a thesis that had been winning for seven months. They got some.

What the Print Actually Said

The headline numbers, from the company's press release filed with the SEC Thursday morning:

• Net revenue of $287.1 million, up 84% from $156.4 million a year ago. Adjusted net revenue of $283.3 million, up 83%.
• Loan marketplace volume of $5.8 billion, up 135%, including $677 million contributed by Kiavi, the fix-and-flip and rental lender Figure acquired effective September 1.
• Figure Connect volume of $4.3 billion, up 276%, now 72% of standalone volume. Connect is the capital-light marketplace where third-party buyers fund loans, the core of the story management wants investors to price.
• Adjusted EBITDA of $163.6 million, up 91%, at a 58% margin, up three points year over year.
• Net income flat at $89.3 million. The optics of flat profit on 84% revenue growth are worse than the substance: the prior-year quarter included a one-time $31 million tax benefit. Diluted EPS of $0.36 versus $0.34.
• $1.6 billion in cash, up $392 million since December, plus a buyback authorization increased by $200 million to $400 million total.

On the strategy side, the quarter delivered the proof points the company needed: 612 standalone partners (894 including Kiavi), SMB originations crossing a $500 million run rate, a Sierra-built AI loan assistant that has processed roughly $260 million in funded loans, the YLDS stablecoin at $504 million in circulation with 28 marketplace participants using it for settlement, and $30 million of cost synergies already actioned on Kiavi.

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The rest of this briefing is for paid members: the take-rate math inside the Q4 guidance and what it implies about fee revenue next quarter, the Kiavi mix-shift mechanics, what is actually left of the short thesis after this print, and the scenario-by-scenario price zones from $19.54 to $37.

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